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David Burse's avatar

Good read. What's the over-under on how long this war lasts? Sometime in 2023?? 2024?? How much more $$ will the US end up dumping into the war? $100B? $200B? $500B? Yes, I know most money dumped into the war recirculates among the insiders in the US. Ultimately, if Russia's war effort continues to drag on, flounder, etc., at what point does Vlad start using some "tactical" nukes? I don't see how this can end in anything but utter destruction of Ukraine. Even if they "win". But, I'm just some guy with an internet connection.

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Bill Heath's avatar

I once explained to a first lieutenant entrusted to my care that he had a single question to answer: What, as in what to do. I also had a single question as a warrant officer: how. After that, all of the questions go to the section sergeant.

There are a few aspects of Russian doctrine that come in here. First is the need for overwhelming artillery advantage. As long as they're comfortable they have it, they're not going to do anything crazy. Telling them we're going to negate that advantage will prompt WW3. Second is a need to turn inside the decision cycle of the enemy. If a Russian can complete his decision-making quicker than his opponent, he'll win. Third is a concept called "Network Planning," which looks a lot like a pert chart. It isn't. The critical path is designed to speed the commander's decision-making by off-loading as much as possible onto others.

I had to read the literature in a translation, so I'm sure I missed a lot of nuance.

At the same time I was doing a highly-compressed Masters in Statistics with an emphasis on Eastern European ORSA.

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